TikTok Shop Viral Stress Test — Free Stockout Tool
Run your stock against 2x to 25x normal demand and see days of cover at each multiple, where your restock window stops being covered, and what the gap costs.
Units on hand, against demand that multiplies
A TikTok Shop spike arrives faster than a reorder does, so the question that decides whether it is worth anything is not how big it gets — it is how long your stock lasts once it starts. This test divides the units you hold by your own daily velocity, then re-runs the division at 2x, 5x, 10x, 25x that velocity. The output is days of cover at each multiple, the first multiple at which cover stops spanning your restock window, and the units that window leaves unserved.
Why no multiple here carries a likelihood
The ladder runs from 2x to 25x because those are round arithmetic steps spanning two orders of magnitude, and for no other reason. This site publishes no distribution of TikTok Shop demand spikes — no measured "a winning video does about this much" figure exists here — so a ladder that implied one would put an invented number underneath every result on the page. "At 10x normal demand you stock out in 1.4 days" is arithmetic you can recheck on paper. "A viral video does about 10x" is a claim, and this tool makes none.
Demand is held flat, so every figure is a ceiling
Real spikes taper, and modelling the taper would need a corpus of spike shapes this site does not carry. So demand is held constant across the whole restock window, which makes every shortfall an UPPER BOUND on what the window can cost rather than a forecast of what it will. That is the right direction for a stress test: it tells you the worst a window holds so you can decide whether the worst is survivable. A tool that guessed at a decay curve would produce a smaller, more confident and less useful number.
No default restock lead time, ever
Days of cover need only your stock and your velocity. Pricing the gap needs a third number — how long a reorder takes to become sellable — and the tool asks for it rather than assuming it. Lead times differ by an order of magnitude between a domestic 3PL restock and an ocean freight run, and the site publishes no figure of its own, so a default would quietly put someone else's supply chain under your result. Without it the tool reports cover and says what it cannot price, in the same posture the seeding planner takes to accept and post rates. Below about 7 days of cover the ladder calls a rung out as tight.
Not a forecast, and not a demand plan
This does not predict whether a spike will happen, how large it will be, or how long it will last — nothing on this site can, and a tool that pretended otherwise would be worth less than a spreadsheet. It also does not separate demand you would recover after a restock from demand that left for good, because no data here can tell those apart; the figure is named for exactly what it is, demand you could not serve inside the window. Nothing you type leaves your browser.
Get the plan
The result above is yours with no email. The prioritised plan covers:
- The cover programme behind the numbers